3. Generations and Fourth Turnings
Generations Describes Seven 80-year Constellations
Each With Four Repeating Segments Called Generations.
Are We In a Fourth Turning, which concerns the crisis period of a Constellation?
by Howe & Strauss   See Generations 1991 Predictions

Predictions see The Fourth Turning is Here 2/16/24
 

Related Summaries 1. Storm Before the Calm   2. How Democracies Die  4. Second Chance
Generations: A Concise Summary

Preface: We Are Turning Into a Crisis Period, the 5th since 1588
1674–1700 (26) King Philip's War/ Glorious Revolution
1767–1791 (24) American Revolution
1843–1859 (16) American Civil War
1925–1942 (17) Great Depression/World War II
2005– Financial or Climate or War on Terror Crisis, or ...

1) Four Turnings Make Repeating Cycles or Saeculums
     First Turning into a High. This is a post-Crisis era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak.
         i.e. the post-World War II American High
    Second Turning into an Awakening is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy.
        i.e.,  “Consciousness Revolution,
    Third Turning into an Unraveling is the opposite of a High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing.
         i.e., the Long Boom and Culture Wars, beginning in the mid 1980s and ending in the late 2000s.
    Forth Turning Ends with a Crisis in which America’s institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival.
         i.e., the   stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with the end of World War II.

2) Crisis Turnings start with a catalyst.
    Black Tuesday, 10/ 29/ 1929,
    Great Powers Constellation
    Abe Lincoln Elected, 12/1860, Civil War Constellation
      Note, this short 67 year constellation had no Hero Generation, third and forth turnings were combines into one period. It ended poorly.
    Boston Tea Part, 12/16/73 for the Revolutionary War

3) Four Archetypes will face a crisis
    Four generational archetypes ("expression of one of the enduring temperaments--and life style myths-- of mankind.")
    that repeat sequentially, in rhythm with the cycle of Crises and Awakenings are created by two eras types and
    the two formative age locations associated with them.

Generation Archetypes:
     Idealist, Reactive, Civic, Adaptive.
     The Fourth Turning Prophet, Nomad, Hero,  Artist

The generations in each archetype not only share a similar age-location in history, they also share some basic attitudes towards family, risk, culture and values, and civic engagement. In essence, generations shaped by similar early-life experiences develop similar collective personas and follow similar life-trajectories.

Prophets are born near the end of a Crisis, during a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus around a new societal order. Prophets grow up as the increasingly indulged children of this post-Crisis era, come of age as self-absorbed young crusaders of an Awakening, focus on morals and principles in midlife, and emerge as elders guiding another Crisis.

Due to their location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their coming-of-age fervor and their values-oriented elder leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of vision, values, and religion.

Nomad generations are born during an Awakening, a time of social ideals and spiritual agendas, when young adults are passionately attacking the established institutional order. Nomads grow up as under-protected children during this Awakening, come of age as alienated, post-Awakening adults, become pragmatic midlife leaders during a Crisis, and age into resilient post-Crisis elders.[44]

Due to their location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their adrift, alienated rising-adult years and their midlife years of pragmatic leadership.

Hero generations are born after an Awakening, during a time of individual pragmatism, self-reliance, and laissez faire. Heroes grow up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, come of age as team-oriented young optimists during a Crisis, emerge as energetic, overly-confident midlifers, and age into politically powerful elders attacked by another Awakening.

Due to their location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their collective military triumphs in young adulthood and their political achievements as elders. Their main societal contributions are in the area of community, affluence, and technology.

Artist generations are born during a Crisis, a time when great dangers cut down social and political complexity in favor of public consensus, aggressive institutions, and an ethic of personal sacrifice. Artists grow up overprotected by adults preoccupied with the Crisis, come of age as the socialized and conformist young adults of a post-Crisis world, break out as process-oriented midlife leaders during an Awakening, and age into thoughtful post-Awakening elders.

Due to their location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their quiet years of rising adulthood and their midlife years of flexible,

 
  

5) Dynamics

Generations that come of age as young adults during a Crisis or an Awakening directly absorb the lessons of that defining era, and carry these lessons forward in their attitudes and behaviors later in life. Strauss and Howe label these dominant generations. Generations that grow up as children during a Crisis or Awakening take a dependent role during that defining era, which shapes their later attitudes and behaviors very differently. Strauss and Howe label these recessive generations.[46] As a youth generation comes of age and defines its collective persona an opposing generational archetype is in its midlife peak of power.

One reason why the cycle of archetypes recurs is that each youth generation tries to correct or compensate for what it perceives as the excesses of the midlife generation in power. For example, Boomers (a Prophet generation, whose strength is individualism, culture and values) raised Millennial children (a Hero generation, whose strength is in collective civic action). Archetypes do not create archetypes like themselves, they create opposing archetypes. As Strauss and Howe explain, “your generation isn’t like the generation that shaped you, but it has much in common with the generation that shaped the generation that shaped you.”[47]

This also occurs because the societal role that feels freshest to each generation of youth is the role being vacated by a generation of elders that is passing away. In other words, a youth generation comes of age and defines its collective persona just as an opposing generational archetype is in its midlife peak of power, and the previous generation of their archetype is passing away.

 		  

6) Summary from Wiki/font

  

      

  • An average life is 80 years, and consists of 4 periods of ~20 years
    • Childhood --> Young adult --> Midlife --> Elderhood
  • A generation is an aggregate of people born every ~20 years
    • Baby Boomers --> Gen X --> Millennials --> Homeland Gen
  • Each generation experiences "four turnings" every ~20years
    • Crisis --> High --> Awakening --> Unraveling
  • A generation is considered "dominant" or "recessive" according to the turning experienced as young adults.
    But as a youth generation comes of age and defines its collective persona an opposing generational archetype is in its midlife peak of power.
     
    • Dominant: independent behavior + attitudes in defining an era
      Recessive: dependent role in defining an era
       
  • Dominant Generations
    • Prophet: Awakening as young adults. Awakening, defined: Institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy
    • Hero: Crisis as young adults. Crisis, defined: Institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival

    Recessive Generations

    • Nomad: Unraveling as young adults. Unraveling, defined: Institutions are weak and distrusted, individualism is strong and flourishing
    • Artist: High [when they become] young adults. High, defined: Institutions are strong and individualism is weak
Our Millennial Constellation is #7, It is 65 Years-old and Counting.
Generation Type Birth years

Formative Era
1. Baby Boom Generation Prophet (Idealist) 1943–1960 (17) High: Superpower America
2. 13th or Generation X better name needed Nomad (Reactive) 1961–1981 (20) Awakening: Consciousness Revolution
3. Millennial Generation Hero (Civic) 1982–2004 (22) Unraveling: Culture Wars, Postmodernism
4. Homeland Generation Artist (Adaptive) 2005–???? Crisis may be caused by: Global Financial Crisis, Climate Change, War on Terror
    zz
#6 was from1860 to 1942. It was the sixth constellation and lasted 85 years.
Generation Type Birth years

Formative Era
Missionary Generation Prophet (Idealist) will guide during crisis 1860–1882 (22) High: Reconstruction/Gilded Age
Lost Generation Nomad (Reactive) 1883–1900 (17) Awakening: Missionary Awakening
G.I. Generation Hero (Civic) will recreate society 1901–1924 (23) Unraveling: World War I/Prohibition
Silent Generation Artist (Adaptive) 1925–1942 (17) Crisis: Great Depression/World War II
 
Generations 1991 Predictions
I. Two Boomer Trends to Watch for p 401

The grace with which they accept advancing years by clinging to youth-fixation narcissism in their forties and fifty's means

Their strength and behavior of midlife factions, especially a split between New Age (moderates) and evangelical (traditional ) camps  whose major 1980's battles were focused on abortion and sex education.

Economy will be key as any increase in as a widening of the economic gap will  aggravate value conflict. This is important because they are training civic Millennials.

II.  If boomers unify and reach a midlife censuses to clean up the world of the Millennial child, a more tranquil decade will follow.

III. Specific Prediction  p 402-3

Boomers will collide with underfunded federal pension and health care system by the mid 2010's.
 Increasing taxes to cover the cost would require winning a furious  political war against 13era and Millennials which would sap their moral authority.
History says they will not wage that war.

Affluent boomers will receive little economic recompense from a lifetime of payroll taxes to support others.

Boomer narcissism will keep circa-2020 national income spent on elderly medical care about the same as today (1980) despite their larger numbers, their longer lifespan and expensive medical technology.

In return for not braking the bank, boomers will demand sweeping moral authority and national leadership until they reach advanced old age and see their values firmly in place.

The Forth Turning Predictions

Present-day tensions the forth turning will probably resolve

Cultural Wars updates of the perennial struggle between individual ideals and the social ideals of the collective with new labels dating back to our recent Consciousness Revolution.

Individual ideals range from market place choice to lifestyle choice, from choice of manners and appearance to choice of expression and entertainment.
The social ideal of community points to choices that must be curtailed to preserve strong families, secure boarders, rising living standard, all the building blocks of sustainable civilization.

No single leadership style and no single political philosophy offer  the right answers for every turning.
When a saeculum changes, this turning requires people holding a particular view allow for the change, adjust their view.

Whether you want big government or low taxes a turning means a change in attitude. "The political and media elites abet this view. From liberalism and conservatism to socialism and libertarianism, all popular ideologies are non-seasonal."   p 309

Neither party has been adept at seasonality thinking and other parties are also harmful post seasonal.
Democrats remove sacrifice and seek entitlement for every victim
Republicans, in their quest for even more individualism try to make public authority even more dysfunctional.

 How America Should Prepare

Prepare institutions:
Clear the debris and find out what works, but don't try to build anything big.

Prepare politics: Define challenges bluntly and stress duties over rights,
but don't attempt any reforms that can't be accomplished.

Editors Note: I looked Forth Turning examples of where politics attempted to do something big that turned out was catastrophic but couldn't find any though Obama Care and the European Union may be an example.

Editor's Thoughts on Predictions

 

 

Present-day tensions the forth turning will probably resolve

Prediction: Cultural Wars updates of the perennial struggle between individual ideals and the social ideals of the collective with new labels dating back to our recent Consciousness Revolution. Individual ideals range from market place choice to lifestyle choice, from choice of manners and appearance to choice of expression and entertainment. Many of Trump people are not happy with either a black president or the victory of gay and transgender rights.

The social ideal of community points to choices that must be curtailed to preserve strong families, secure boarders, rising living standard, all the building blocks of sustainable civilization. Many Trump people think we are failing miserably at this.

No single leadership style and no single political philosophy offer  the right answers for every turning.
When a saeculum changes, this turning requires people holding a particular view allow for the change, adjust their view. Whether you want big government or low taxes a turning means a change in attitude. Do you see any party members doing this?"

The political and media elites abet this view. From liberalism and conservatism to socialism and libertarianism, all popular ideologies are non-seasonal."  Would you say this is true. p 309

Neither party has been adept at seasonality thinking and other parties are also harmful post seasonal.
Democrats remove sacrifice and seek entitlement for every victim True? and Republicans, in their quest for even
more individualism try to make public authority even more dysfunctional. True?

How America Should Prepare

Prepare institutions: Clear the debris and find out what works, but don't try to build anything big. Is Obamacare a big project?

Prepare politics: Define challenges bluntly and stress duties over rights, but don't attempt any reforms that can't be accomplished. Trump's America First does the opposite.

Generations and Fourth Turning Analysis
“We Are 8 Years Into the Fourth Turning” What's Next? 7/4/17

For more visit fourthturning.com/

 

 

  • Generations Through History 
  • Arthurian Generation (1433–1460) (H)
  • Humanist Generation (1461–1482) (A)
  • Reformation Generation (1483–1511) (Prophet)
  • Reprisal Generation (1512–1540) (Nomad)
  • Elizabethan Generation (1541–1565) (Hero)
  • Parliamentary Generation (1566–1587) (Artist)
  • Puritan Generation (1588–1617) (P)
  • Cavalier Generation (1618–1647) (N)
  • Glorious Generation (1648–1673) (H)
  • Enlightenment Generation (1674–1700) (A)
  • Awakening Generation (1701–1723) (P)
  • Liberty Generation (1724–1741) (N)
  • Republican Generation (1742–1766) (H)
  • Compromise Generation (1767–1791) (A)
  • Transcendental Generation (1792–1821) (P)
  • Gilded Generation (1822–1842) (N)
  • Progressive Generation (1843–1859) (A)
  • Missionary Generation (1860–1882) (P)
  • Lost Generation (1883–1900) (N)
  • G.I. Generation (1901–1924) (H)
  • Silent Generation (1925–1942) (A)
  • Baby Boom Generation (1943–1960) (P)
  • Generation X (Gen X) (1961–1981) (N)
  • Millennial G (Gen Y) (1982–2004) (H)
  • Homeland Generation (2005 – ????) (A)

[edit] Turnings

While writing Generations, Strauss and Howe discovered a pattern in the historical generations they examined which revolved around generational events which they call turnings. In Generations, and in greater detail in The Fourth Turning, they identify the four-stage cycle of social or mood eras (i.e. turnings).

[edit] High

According to Strauss and Howe, the First Turning is a High. This is a post-Crisis era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, though those outside the majoritarian center often feel stifled by the conformity.[20]

America’s most recent First Turning was the post-World War II American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. The Silent Generation (Artist archetype, born 1925 to 1942) came of age during this era. Known for their caution, conformity, and institutional trust, Silent young adults epitomized the mood of the High. Most married early, sought stable corporate jobs, and moved into new suburbs.[21]

[edit] Awakening

According to the theory, the Second Turning is an Awakening. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Young activists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural and spiritual poverty.[22]

America’s most recent Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution,” which spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid 1960s to the reelection of Ronald Reagan. The Boom Generation (Prophet archetype, born 1943 to 1960) came of age during this era. Their idealism and search for authentic self-expression epitomized the mood of the Awakening.[23]

[edit] Unraveling

According to Strauss and Howe, the Third Turning is an Unraveling. The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs come after Crises, when society wants to coalesce and build. Unraveling come after Awakenings, when society wants to atomize and enjoy.[24]

America’s most recent Unraveling was the Long Boom and Culture Wars, beginning in the mid 1980s and ending in the late 2000s. The era began during the second term of (Reagan’s “Morning in America”), which eventually developed into a "debased" popular culture, a pervasive distrust of institutions and leaders, and the splitting of national

    • Artist: High [when they become] young adults. High, defined: Institutions are strong and individualism is weak

[edit] Timing of generations and turnings

d zz
Generation Type Birth years Formative era
1. Late Medieval Saeculum (? years)
 Note: Saeculum means time period, for the ancient Greeks it was 80 to 100 years,  I prefer naming the period for its constellation (grouping) .
Arthurian Generation Hero (Civic) 1433–1460 (27) Unraveling: Retreat from France
Humanist Generation Artist (Adaptive) 1461–1482 (21) Crisis: War of the Roses
2. Reformation Saeculum (104)
Reformation Generation Prophet (Idealist) 1483–1511 (28) High: Tudor Renaissance
Reprisal Generation Nomad (Reactive) 1512–1540 (28) Awakening: Protestant Reformation
Elizabethan Generation Hero (Civic) 1541–1565 (24) Unraveling: Intolerance and Martyrdom
Parliamentary Generation Artist (Adaptive) 1566–1587 (21) Crisis: Armada Crisis
3. New World Saeculum (112)
Puritan Generation Prophet (Idealist) 1588–1617 (29) High: Merrie England
Cavalier Generation Nomad (Reactive) 1618–1647 (29) Awakening: Puritan Awakening
Glorious Generation Hero (Civic) 1648–1673 (25) Unraveling: Reaction and Restoration
Enlightenment Generation Artist (Adaptive) 1674–1700 (26) Crisis: King Philip's War/
Glorious Revolution
4. Revolutionary Saeculum (90)
Awakening Generation Prophet (Idealist) 1701–1723 (22) High: Augustan Age of Empire
Liberty Generation Nomad (Reactive) 1724–1741 (17) Awakening: Great Awakening
Republican Generation Hero (Civic) 1742–1766 (24) Unraveling: French and Indian War
Compromise Generation Artist (Adaptive) 1767–1791 (24) Crisis: American Revolution
5 Civil War Saeculum (67)
Transcendental Generation Prophet (Idealist) 1792–1821 (29) High: Era of Good Feeling
Gilded Generation Nomad (Reactive) 1822–1842 (20) Awakening: Transcendental Awakening
  Hero (Civic)0

None
Progressive Generation Artist (Adaptive) 1843–1859 (16) Crisis: American Civil War
6 Great Power Saeculum (85)
Missionary Generation Prophet (Idealist) 1860–1882 (22) High: Reconstruction/Gilded Age
Lost Generation Nomad (Reactive) 1883–1900 (17) Awakening: Missionary Awakening
G.I. Generation Hero (Civic) 1901–1924 (23) Unraveling: World War I/Prohibition
Silent Generation Artist (Adaptive) 1925–1942 (17) Crisis: Great Depression/World War II
7. Millennial Saeculum (65+)
Baby Boom Generation Prophet (Idealist) 1943–1960 (17)[49] High: Superpower America
"13th Generation"
Generation X1		 Nomad (Reactive) 1961–1981 (20) Awakening: Consciousness Revolution
Millennial Generation2 Hero (Civic) 1982–2004 (22)[50] Unraveling: Culture Wars, Postmodernism
Homeland Generation34 Artist (Adaptive) 2005–???? Crisis: Global Financial Crisis, Climate Change, War on Terror
 

The Transcendental Generation was the Prophets generation charged with the responsibility of
guiding society  during the Civil War Crisis. Here is a brief summary of their attempt. Generations
p 204-5

 

  

Source PDF files from : 2023 Predictions see The Fourth Turning is Here 8/6/23

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